Scenario Analysis:

Thirteen entrants are contending for $$$.

Name

Duke over MSU

MSU over Duke

Duke over AZ

AZ over Duke

MD over MSU

MSU over MD

MD over AZ

AZ over MD

Andreas W.

1

3

Andy F.

Cynthia H.

2

Elizabeth K.

1

2

3

1

1

Erin B.

1

2

Greg F.

3

James S. 2

3

Jim S.

2

John A.

2

Ken C.

1

2

Mark H. 2

2

1

3

3

Mary H.

1

2

Zack T.

3

2

Note: Analysis Courtesy of Ken C.

 

Prize Money:

Place

Payout

1st

$ 247.50

2nd

$ 135.00

3rd

$ 67.50

 

Potential Payout:

Name

Duke over MSU

MSU over Duke

Duke over AZ

AZ over Duke

MD over MSU

MSU over MD

MD over AZ

AZ over MD

Andreas W.

$247.50

$67.50

Andy F.

Cynthia H.

$135.00

Elizabeth K.

$247.50

$101.25

$67.50

$247.50

$247.50

Erin B.

$247.50

$135.00

Greg F.

$67.50

James S. 2

$67.50

Jim S.

$135.00

John A.

$135.00

Ken C.

$247.50

$135.00

Mark H. 2

$101.25

$247.50

$67.50

$67.50

Mary H.

$247.50

$135.00

Zack T.

$67.50

$135.00

Note: Payout for Elizabeth K. and Mark H. 2 for MD over MSU game is average of 2nd and 3rd place payouts

 

Scenario Probability:

Scenario

Duke over MSU

MSU over Duke

Duke over AZ

AZ over Duke

MD over MSU

MSU over MD

MD over AZ

AZ over MD

Probability

19%

12%

23%

11%

8%

9%

9%

9%

Source: Ken C., Vegas Joe

 

Expected Payout per entrant per game:

Duke over MSU

MSU over Duke

Duke over AZ

AZ over Duke

MD over MSU

MSU over MD

MD over AZ

AZ over MD

Total

Andreas W.

$47.03

$15.53

$62.55

Andy F.

$0.00

Cynthia H.

$31.05

$31.05

Elizabeth K.

$27.23

$8.10

$6.08

$22.28

$22.28

$85.95

Erin B.

$56.93

$14.85

$71.78

Greg F.

$12.83

$12.83

James S. 2

$8.10

$8.10

Jim S.

$16.20

$16.20

John A.

$25.65

$25.65

Ken C.

$29.70

$12.15

$41.85

Mark H. 2

$8.10

$22.28

$6.08

$6.08

$42.53

Mary H.

$19.80

$12.15

$31.95

Zack T.

$7.43

$12.15

$19.58

Total

$85.50

$54.00

$103.50

$49.50

$36.00

$40.50

$40.50

$40.50

$450.00

 

Expected Payout per Entrant:

Name (Abvd)

Expected Payout

1

Elizabeth K.

$85.95

2

Erin B.

$71.78

3

Andreas W.

$62.55

4

Mark H. 2

$42.53

5

Ken C.

$41.85

6

Mary H.

$31.95

7

Cynthia H.

$31.05

8

John A.

$25.65

9

Zack T.

$19.58

10

Jim S.

$16.20

11

Greg F.

$12.83

12

James S. 2

$8.10

$450.00

 

Opportunity to profit by selling insurance to all entrants for small percentage of expected winnings exists. 

Caveat: risk-positive actors may impede plan.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Picks to win:

Duke

20

43%

Michigan St.

6

13%

Stanford

5

11%

Arizona

3

7%

Illinois

3

7%

North Carolina

3

7%

Maryland

2

4%

Virginia

2

4%

Florida

1

2%

Kentucky

1

2%

46

100%

 

Regression Analysis:

As of 3/26/01 - after completion of Elite 8.